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Considered Opinions on Further EU Enlargement: Evidence from an EU-Wide Deliberative Poll

  • Date
  • March 2009

In October 2007, Notre Europe and the Open Society Institute co-supported the first-ever EU-wide Deliberative Poll, “Tomorrow's Europe.” It gathered a scientific random sample of 362 citizens from all 27 EU countries to Brussels, where they spent a weekend deliberating about key social and foreign policy issues affecting the future of the EU and its member states. The deliberations, in 22 languages, took place in the European Parliament building.

As a result of deliberating, the participants became dramatically more informed and changed their views about a number of important issues. Participants from the 12 newer and 15 older member states generally started with different opinions but tended to converge.

One of the surprising outcomes was an opinion swing against EU enlargement (Ukraine and Turkey, particularly), which was especially prominent among new member states.

In order to get a better understanding how this opinion swing happened after deliberation, Jim Fishkin and Bob Luskin from Stanford University’s Center for Deliberative Democracy have analyzed the data before and after the questionnaires as well as the recordings of small group sessions, and summarized the findings in a follow-up report.

Fishkin and Luskin were in Brussels on June 24, 2008, to present the report and discuss the findings with a small group of opinion leaders, in order to inform thinking on further enlargement and provide input into future communication on enlargement by the EU and its member states.

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